11th May came and passed but has left nightmares for people in the form of sit-ins in different cities of Pakistan. Most of the complaints are heard from PTI. According to them, they have lost Punjab and Karachi because of rigging. Their candidate at NA250 from Karachi, Dr. Arif Alvi, who lost intra party election is demanding to have re-election in all over Karachi, although PTI didn’t contest on all the seats in Karachi. MQM has retained its traditional victory on many seats in Karachi but they faced a large number of voters who voted against them in few constituencies. Interestingly, some are attributing this to something that is new for MQM but they have lost seven seats against MMA (a religious alliance) in 2002. PPP and ANP won seats from Karachi in last election. So let us analyze the voting pattern to see what is the real story.
There has always been group of people in Karachi who voted against MQM, regardless of any force. In NA 253, in 2008 PPP got 47,101 votes but in 2013 they got only 10,127 votes. Here we have remaining 36,974 voters who voted against MQM but to some other party. In the same constituency in 2002, JI’s AsadUllah Bhutto under the umbrella of MMA got 28,840 votes, but in 2013 JI’s AsadUllah bagged only 12,651 votes, which means JI lost 16,189 votes which was also anti-MQM vote. In 2013 PTI got 61,913 votes in their basket. Now total of 53,163 anti-MQM votes were already present in the constituency since 2002.
Another noticing factor that happened on May11th was that after seeing the clear defeat in election in Karachi the head of JI boycotted the election, because his voters were going out for PTI not for JI. After seeing the turnout he could only pulled out party but couldn’t ask their voters to sit home.
Similar voting pattern can be seen in NA 250 for last two elections,. In 2002 JI under MMA was the winner with 21462 votes and PPP was on third position with 12,105 votes. In 2008, on NA250 MQM came out as winner by 52,045 votes where PPP came second by 44,412 and PMLN got 3,480 votes. Here thousand of anti-MQM votes are present in this constituency too.
In this election NA250 was made most controversial constituency by media. After ECP’s decision of re-polling in 43 polling stations, MQM boycotted completely because they were demanding the re-election in whole constituency. ECP was completely failed to manage free and fair election in NA250. On May 19th, the re-polling day on 43 polling stations; turned out was below 15% which was way below the turnout of May11th. Therefore, there is always been a huge number of anti-MQM voters in Karachi who for any reason; either ethnical or ideological, did not support them. Hence calling PTI an emerging force in Karachi may not be justifiable. Both supporters and anti-MQM is always there since years or one can say that there is a pro MQM vote and anti MQM vote in Karachi.
In Lahore, in 2002, Fareed Paracha of JI under MMA’s flag took 30326 votes but in 2013 he could only bagged 2994 votes. In NA 126 Liaquat Baloch got 43679 votes in 2002, but in 2013 he could only got 3226 votes. In 2013 election, in NA121 PTI got 68227 and in NA126 they got 96666 votes. Therefore, JI is the main victim of tsunami, otherwise, PPP, MQM and PMLN had come out pretty much safe with their traditional seats. In fact, Imran Khan who emerged as a genuine threat to Nawaz Shrief in Punjab and national election was not able to deliver. He unfortunately lost the seat where he was contesting himself from Lahore, which was a big upset and shock to the people that such a charismatic leader couldn’t win his own seat. One of the main leader of PTI, Hamid Khan also lost against Saad Rafiq.
In KPK, PTI came out as a winner and formed government with the partnership of JI. The same province which was once won by MMA/JI in 2002, has given them only 7 seats in provincial and 3 seats in national assemblies. Their majorly rest of the support has gone towards PTI which has made them a big force in their first election, but their ideology of calling Taliban as “friends not enemy” will make them unpopular soon among the liberals. They haven’t gain much support from liberals will lose the rest if won’t change their stance against state enemies.