The Facts and Myths of Tsunami


The Facts and Myths of Tsunami

11th May  came and passed but has left nightmares for people in the form of sit-ins in different cities of Pakistan. Most of the complaints are heard from PTI. According to them, they have lost Punjab and Karachi because of rigging. Their candidate at NA250 from Karachi, Dr. Arif Alvi, who lost intra party election is demanding to have re-election in all over Karachi, although PTI didn’t contest on all the seats in Karachi. MQM has retained its traditional victory on many seats in Karachi but they faced a large number of voters who voted against them in few constituencies.  Interestingly, some are attributing this to something that is new for MQM but they have lost seven seats against MMA (a religious alliance) in 2002. PPP and ANP won seats from Karachi in last election. So let us analyze the voting pattern to see what is the real story.

 

There has always been group of people in Karachi who voted against MQM, regardless of any force. In NA 253, in 2008 PPP got 47,101 votes but in 2013 they got only 10,127 votes. Here we have remaining 36,974 voters who voted against MQM but to some other party. In the same constituency in 2002, JI’s AsadUllah Bhutto under the umbrella of MMA got 28,840 votes, but in 2013 JI’s AsadUllah bagged only 12,651 votes, which means JI lost 16,189 votes which was also anti-MQM vote. In 2013 PTI got 61,913 votes in their basket. Now total of 53,163 anti-MQM votes were already present in the constituency since 2002.

 

Another noticing factor that happened on May11th was that after seeing the clear defeat in election in Karachi the head of JI boycotted the election, because his voters were going out for PTI not for JI. After seeing the turnout he could only pulled out party but couldn’t ask their voters to sit home.

 

Similar voting pattern can be seen in NA 250 for last two elections,. In 2002 JI under MMA was the winner with 21462 votes and PPP was on third position with 12,105 votes.  In 2008, on NA250 MQM came out as winner by 52,045 votes where PPP came second by 44,412 and PMLN got 3,480 votes. Here thousand of anti-MQM votes are present in this constituency too.

 

In this election NA250 was made most controversial constituency by media. After ECP’s decision of re-polling in 43 polling stations, MQM boycotted completely because they were demanding the re-election in whole constituency. ECP was completely failed to manage free and fair election in NA250. On May 19th, the re-polling day on 43 polling stations; turned out was below 15% which was way below the turnout of May11th. Therefore, there is always been a huge number of anti-MQM voters in Karachi who for any reason; either ethnical or ideological, did not support them.  Hence calling PTI an emerging force in Karachi may not be justifiable. Both supporters and anti-MQM is always there since years or one can say that there is a pro MQM vote and anti MQM vote in Karachi.

 

In Lahore, in 2002, Fareed Paracha of JI under MMA’s flag took 30326 votes but in 2013 he could only bagged 2994 votes. In NA 126 Liaquat Baloch got 43679 votes in 2002, but in 2013 he could only got 3226 votes. In 2013 election, in NA121 PTI got 68227 and in NA126 they got 96666 votes. Therefore, JI is the main victim of tsunami, otherwise, PPP, MQM and PMLN had come out pretty much safe with their traditional seats. In fact, Imran Khan who emerged as a genuine threat to Nawaz Shrief in Punjab and national election was not able to deliver. He unfortunately lost the seat where he was contesting himself from Lahore, which was a big upset and shock to the people that such a charismatic leader couldn’t win his own seat. One of the main leader of PTI, Hamid Khan also lost against Saad Rafiq.

 

In KPK, PTI came out as a winner and formed government with the partnership of JI. The same province which was once won by MMA/JI in 2002, has given them only 7 seats in provincial and 3 seats in national assemblies.  Their majorly rest of the support has gone towards PTI which has made them a big force in their first election, but their ideology of calling Taliban as “friends not enemy” will make them unpopular soon among the liberals. They haven’t gain much support from liberals will lose the rest if won’t change their stance against state enemies.



Farheen Rizvi

A masters in International Management from University of Maryland, a social worker and a blogger.


  • Patpaki

    This article needs improvement in the areas of (a) consistency of thoughts; (b) links among various thoughts from one paragraph to another; and (c) a clear outline of what the article is all about.

    Good luck next time!

  • Arshad

    pathetic piece written seemingly on MQM’s behalf. dream on, but Karachiites have moved on and PTI is only going to get stronger as it’s a centrist party with ideals that appeal to every Pakistani and a truly democratic party where you and I can actually have a say in shaping policy

    • Rehan

      It’s not about MQM it’s about who was dented the most by PTI . Jamat-e-Islami yes but did the PPP voter stayed home or voted PTI .Now read again & do the maths of numbers

  • S Nasrullah

    Mr Shahid Hussain, an Economic Analyst from BBC (International) London, made startling disclosures about the tremendous losses Karachi suffered ever since the advent of MQM ascendancy in the Political arena of Urban Sindh. He made a categorical statement that during past two decades, Karachi lost $70 billion in Foreign Investment and Revenues – entirely owing to the reign of racism, rowdyism, target killing, extortion, kidnappings and the murderous mayhem unleashed by a Political Party the Blogger supports and subscribes. While the petty traders moved up North in their bid to look for secure, greener pastures, there has been mass exodus of Entrepreneurs with stupendous flight of Capital.

    Can anyone forget that the Chief Justice of Pakistan was made to wait at the Karachi Airport to get green signal from the fiefdom of MQM, which was denied and the CJ had to return back to Islamabad. Similar was the fate of Imran Khan when he took on Altaf Hussain with UK Authorities. MQM has been one parasite that clung to the body politics of every ruling Party to partake her share of the booty. But a change is on the horizon – perceptible and promising. This time PTI has defeated the sitting NA Member of MQM from Karachi. Also the re-counting has justly restored the electoral victory of Two PTI Candidates for the PA.

    This change occurred when people from other Provinces migrated to Karachi to exploit the commercial bonanza, Karachi was associated with. Fighting for the turf ensued and suddenly the MQM Mafia was overwhelmed by antagonists with equal or greater forces of perdition and gospel of the grab than MQM. Bullet for bullet, body for body, the bloody game of Mafia reprisals unfurled. Every Pharaoh has to lie low before a Moses.

    With little more education and enlightenment and more exposure to cycles of Elections and accountability, people everywhere would realize that human beings have been emancipated from the raw and rash jungle laws and placed on the pedestal of the suave and the sophisticated who believe dialog and debate as the best medium to resolve disputes and dissensions.

    NS rode a popular wave of change that IK piloted. Propagating his prominent and powerful slogan of exploding the Nuclear Device in the face of stiff opposition of the powerful West, he had successfully entered Pakistan into the exclusive Nuclear Club together with the gift of Express and the efficient road network to the Nation convinced the many sitting on the fence. Public played safe and its reluctance to experiment with new principles and personalities in the wake of the traumatic experience of five years of corrupt and cruel rule of PPP and its Cohorts, was its inhibition and its limitation. IK and PTI have registered gains that many parties with long standing span of time and space could not equal. The coming Election in 2018 would take PTI to the pinnacle of its popularity and the youth of Pakistan would energize the potentialities to launch Pakistan into its conspicuous place among the comity of Nations.

  • http://twitter.com/ASilentKnight Horn do Rasta Lo

    You can read Farheen Rizvi’s tweets, and saying there is an anti-PTI obsession would be somewhat of an understatement.

  • Anonymous

    Good selective spin with numbers to justify a flawed premise of pro and anti MQM vote. Interestingly, disection of NA250 figures was missing considering Dr Alvi was leading by 30,000 votes in the 140 polling stations where repolling did not take place. Is it the assumption that all 43 repolled stations in posher parts of Karachi would have voted MQM overwhelmingly to defeat Dr Alvi? If voters can swing from PPP, or JI, why not MQM?! Has MQM fullfilled its voters needs in te last 5 years?

    Dear lady, if one assumes that Karachi has a higher percentage of educated people across all classes, these would also be thought as the thinking classes who would often not have the communist lie allegiance to any one party. They would often vote for different parties depending upon previous performance and policy. One would expect the more progressive Karachiites (and not the more conservative Punjabis) to give a new idea like PTI the first success (as they did with MQM all those years ago!), unless of course Karachiites and Lahorites are no different in their political thinking.

    If you go on about Pro and Anti votes in the context of Karachi then claims that Karachi has somehow a more advanced and educated people – and all these must be default support MQM for all times to come – is the myth. Whereas te fact would be that you expect intelligent and educated lot to swing and try different plans based upon their experience. Perhaps you Masters skills should be employed in analysing why MQM now has a strong challenge as many of MQM’s voters voted PTI.

  • Adeel Zaidi

    Wrong and misleading calculations specially adding 2002 votes and 2008 is logically not possible. Since, when you add votes of 10 years time span, you assume that there is no addition or reduction in votes during this period, which is not a logical assumption. Moreover, considering KPK the person has considered on 2002 election that MMA won and she is not considering that 2008 ANP won as well and this time ANP few seats even in Provincial assembly with only 1 in NA. Moreover, the writer doesn’t have any idea about the practical reality on 11 May in Lahore, adding and subtraction previous elections vote is most illogical approach again.

  • Ahmad Zaman

    Miss Farheen rizvi, with respect I request that please open up your eyes, ears and mind and accept the facts, otherwise you will be rejected by the community and time. Please write for the sake of country and public, not for anti public and anti Pakistan.

  • Anonymous

    article is based on reality and we accept it.

  • Gulraiz khan

    One piece of advice for the writer and it is for free!…Please take some good knowledge before posting your articles which clearly depicts one side picture. Articles need to be unbiased. Not sure how The News can publish something so Immature on its portal!

  • khalid

    nice clerical analysis………. as does every one from our nation does. bcz dont have foresigt…….

  • Anonymous

    Ms Rizvi,

    Has the moderator edited out balancing logical points from your blog? If that is the case, I have not seen your complaint here as some other bloggers in the past, unhappy editing have done.

    Perhaps poor grammar was not the reason for Saeed Sb’s observation and the snipe overextended but it does not alter that your reasoning is a one sided spin and you have not questioned the logic of other posts either.

    Barring deletion of abuse etc, If any editing of posts and responses alters the body and intent of the message, it damages the credibility of these blogs immensely and is of great concern to the regulars here.

  • M.Saeed

    It is a ground reality that 65% population of Pakistan is settled in Punjab and you cannot eradicate that without reducing them to your liking. Even creating more provinces out of Punjab would not make them “Urdu speaking Muhajirs”.

    The only viable alternative that can solve the problem for all times is, dispensing with the provincialism and making each Division a
    local Government with all functions of a provincial government delegated to it, less the large paraphernalia of useless “inverted pyramid” of monster buck-chopping provincial administration.

    A worker from the people, working for the welfare of people through the people does not need to be caged and confined in glorious merrymaking extravaganzas.

  • M.Saeed

    If everything happens for logic, then me being pissed off should
    be a part of that logic, right?

    And, the correct phrase is: “pissed off” and not “pissed of” of yours that might invite another avalanche of not too pleasant rejoinders.