Iran’s Nuclear Program is one of the most sensitive and critical issues in the politics of Middle East that has various geo-political dimensions that generate some other aspects to talk about how a high level art of diplomacy and wisdom are needed to resolve this complicating issue that has gripped the World for several years.
Why Arabs are afraid of Iran’s Nuke Program?
In reality there is no nuclear threat from Iran to Arab World but since last century, after the political division of Arab territories, Arabs are failed to establish their identity on the basis of Arab Nationalism or Islam despite several moves from time to time in this regard. They are divided into tribes who have traditional domestic differences with each others and hence have a lack of any National Identity so Arab states have their pivot around Royal Families ruling the land (Monarchies) but enmity amongst tribes may have a serious threats in coming time to their existence as a state based on National Identity. Such threats have frightened them to think about portraying a foreign enemy in order to unify the nation and strengthen the country’s sense of national identity around the pivot of Royal families.
For this purpose a Non-Arab and Anti-America Iran is an ideal “foreign enemy” so Arab States are also on front alongside Western Countries to declare Iran a Global threat and their enemy. In other words, propagating a nuclear Iran would mean more strength for an enemy around which Arab’s new identity has taken shape. Therefore, the focus on Iran has been increased as Arab States trying to proceed with their own nation-building efforts.
Why US and West are consistently persuading Iran to cut back on sensitive aspects of its nuclear work?
The official policy of USA is that Iran should not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, while urging Tehran to respond to the international sanctions aimed at dissuading it from acquiring a nuclear bomb. Tehran insists that its nuclear program is solely for civilian energy and medical purposes, while the U.S.-led West and Israel suspect that Iran is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon that could be used to destroy Israel. Although several proposal and incentives have been offered to Iran to persuade it to roll back its Nuclear Program including supply of enriched uranium of a restricted degree for use only in civilian purposes but no significant success has been observed so far despite years-long negotiation with IAEA and European Union. Iranian Leadership under the influence of Revolutionary Guards has several times threatened Israel to wipe it out from the earth. The fear of West is in the background of specific ideology of Islamic Revolution that is totally controlled by hard liners Revolutionary Guards and its Nuclear Programs is also in the supervision and control of this Revolutionary Military Guards instead of any state civilian authority.
What are the fears of Iran?
Iran knows well that neighboring nations are not in support of its Islamic revolution. Just after the Revolution took place Saddam-led Iraq attacked on Iran with massive military and financial support of neighboring Arab States and West that went on about 18 years but Iran successfully not only pushed back enemies but also strengthened its revolutionary roots in region and acquired general public support in Islamic world. Iran also remained successful in establishing economical ties with other strong nations outside the region. Internally Iran foiled all the actions against Islamic Revolution and kept promoting a political system and held elections regularly instead of turning system into any sort of autocracy. Iran wants to secure its sovereignty and revolution hence aims at acquiring nuclear capabilities to overcome all difficulties and that’s why Iranian Leadership is looking steadfast against all sanctions, pressures and threats from USA and West. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said recently that international sanctions imposed over Iran’s nuclear drive had caused “problems”, but they had not stopped progress.
What makes Israel so anxious to attack on Iran immediately?
Acquiring a Nuclear Weapon by Iran is a “Death Warrant” to Israel so Israel does not want to give Iran any chance to get succeeded. Israel wants USA and West to attack Iran immediately. In past Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear plant by staging a air strike but in case of Iran so far situation is perhaps out of control. Although Israeli Commanders Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz boasts that Israel can act alone if need be and that’s true. But military experts believe that Israel’s current military capabilities aren’t enough to deliver a knockout blow against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure as Iranians have duplicated some of their nuclear installations and others are buried deep underground with heavy air defenses.
Is Israel really capable of launching attack on Iran on its own?
According to foreign sources, “Israel has 100 advanced F-16I and 25 F-16I to carry out attacks and seven known aerial tankers. The limitation on in-flight refueling, the key factor in such a long-range operation, some 2,000 miles there and back, curtails the number of strike aircraft that can be deployed and thus the damage they can inflict.”
To overcome the limitations Israelis are buying the new U.S. F-35 stealth fighter, which they see as the best option for the kind of air strike they have in mind but the first 20 won’t be available until 2015, with another 55 following over 2-3 years after that. But Western Analysts say Iran may have nuclear weapons by then, as well as a couple of hundred more ballistic missiles to drop them anywhere.
Why US and West are avoiding the military option against Iran so far?
Although US officials have declared several times that military option against Iran is always on table but US seeks its diplomatic solution instead of war. Strategic experts believe that US is not sure about the success of any attack on Iran but any such action will result in uncontrollable consequences all over the World. Iran’s geo-political location in Middle East is of great importance. Any military action in that region will surely result in closure of a major oil supply route to Asia and Asian Pacific Region and nobody can predict in advance what reaction will come from that region’s powerful countries and economic forces. Moreover, the possible emerging global economic turmoil will not make the America’s life easy to deal with such unforeseen and unpredictable situation. In that scenario USA and West understand it better to hold talks and more and more talks with Iran by any forum to sort out this issue to reach to a respectable solution for all stake-holders.
Diplomatic efforts have been underway for years in which the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, all nuclear powers and Germany have tried, so far in vain, to persuade Iran to cut back on sensitive aspects of its nuclear work. Nobody knows what happens in talks but holding another talk after failure of a talk means that there is a room for a success but how to reach there is a matter of patience and art of diplomacy.