North Korea has recently threatened USA and its ally South Korea with nuclear war. This shrill threat has once again drawn world’s attention towards Korean Peninsula and has reminded the world that region still needs of result-oriented joint diplomatic efforts and humanitarian actions to pull the region back from war or war like situation. This region happens to be a hedge of disputes amongst various nations , however, this dispute is unique in a way that North Korea is a nuclear power with missile technology suffering various kinds of sanctions from USA-led countries and finds it fighting for its survival as a Marxist Hermit State.
What is the intention of North Korea?
It’s not evident but many diplomatic experts urge that the purpose of North Korean leadership is to behave like “it is looking for a fight but it doesn’t want to start a war it knows it can’t win. It wants to appear volatile to gain concessions from stronger nations.”
But so far North Korea is successful a little only as it has now shifted the region’s attention to refrain South Korea from accidentally or intentionally launching a pre-emptive attack on North Korea. Some experts also believe that the warlike rhetoric of North Korea is to exert pressure on USA and rest of the World to recognize it as a proven legitimate Nuclear State.
Does North Korea have the capability to hit USA?
North Korea has yet maintained the mystery about its nuclear-cum-ballistic missile program and World is not sure exactly about its actual capabilities to throw away a nuclear bomb. Pentagon spokesman George Little said “it would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced in the passage”. The strong voices inside the U.S. government are that North Korea does not yet have a nuclear device that would fit longer-range missiles that conceivably could hit the U.S. mainland. Despite the unanimous voices about North Korean capabilities, it does not mean that danger is null and void and threat is absurd. It’s yet a game of possibilities. In wake of launching a Musudan missile, whose range of 3,500 km (2,100 miles) would put Japan within striking distance from North Korea, USA has been beefing up missile defenses in Alaska and Guam in the Pacific.
A decent reaction from South Korea
Despite the fact that South Korea may be the main target of any possible aggression from North Korea, its President Park Geun-hye said that she was open to resume talks with the North Korea and would continue to offer humanitarian aid. Her long-standing policy is that the North Korea needs to abandon its nuclear program before it gets aid. South Korea also called for negotiations with North Korea on the future of the Kaesong joint industrial zone, which North Korea has threatened to shut down permanently after suspending operations. Although South Korean analysts urge that the impoverished state would not dare to close Kaesong as it’s a crucial source of hard currency for it.
Is USA actually testing China Diplomacy over North Korea?
USA is emphasizing China, closest ally of North Korea, to use all its leverage to refrain North Korea’s “destabilizing” actions on the Korean peninsula, China has been the main source of financial aid to North Korea for last several years which depends on China for 65 percent of its imports, but China itself is very much concerned about the adverse effects of irresponsible attitude of North Korea on its strategic interests. USA seems hopeful that China ‘would do a lot of things to restrain the flow of energy and food to North Korea… hold back on new investment’. In diplomatic circles it is truly said that actually it’s a test of China’s patience and recent North Korean move may result into dwindling Chinese strategic options in Pacific.
What “dilemma” China is facing?
China considers North Korea under present regime a fortress wall of a buffer state and hence does not want to take any measure that can result into a collapse of the Pyongyang regime and any such situation does not suite China that can lead toward “facilitate the unification of Korea,” bringing South Korean ally US on China’s doorstep. Moreover China has a fear that if any instability arises in North Korea will send floods of refugees into China.
What is a way out for China from this difficult situation that may turn into a hunting trap? Imposition of further U.N. sanctions on North Korea will put Chinese companies into more difficult situation which are dealing with North Korea. John Kerry has opened US demands of “denuclearization” of North Korea by peaceful means but it’s unclear what extraordinary concessions US can offer to North Korea for its development and humanitarian aid and what concrete guarantee can be provided for its national security and sovereignty if it agrees to abandon its nuclear program?