With the next general elections due within a year or so every party has silently geared up its loins and are trying to promulgate their ideas to the masses. The year 2011 proved to be a turning point in the history of Pakistani politics when some significant changes were seen. Some parties tapered off whereas some emerged on the political horizon and took everyone by surprise. The public saw PML-Q going way down and PTI climbing the ladders high. We now have a veritable contest on our hands. The tangible political synopsis can only be predicted just before the elections when every party will be exercising the powers vested in them. For now, the scenario is moving towards a huge build up for the elections.
Punjab: PTI’s Chairman- Imran Khan paid a visit to JI’s head Syed Munawwar Hassan. Issues of common interest were discussed and the possibility of a pre-election alliance was also elucidated. An alliance of both these parties will definitely make things difficult for PML-N in Punjab.
In a constituency there are approximately 70,000 to 90,000 votes. PML-N has a very strong vote which mounts up to about 70% of the total votes. Jamat e Islami has a rather limited vote bank but still can’t be neglected. Since PTI has become popular now and IK has started enjoying a cult-following among all strata, it’s safe to presume that a PTI-JI alliance will definitely dent PML-N very badly. The fiercest strife will be seen in Punjab. With PTI and PML-N, both having their head offices at Lahore, they will be seen locking horns and you wouldn’t want to miss this one!
Sindh: The meritorious thing about PML-N is that it has also started paying attention towards Sindh. PPP, a party which has always tried to cash in the ‘Sindh Card’, will have to work really hard in order to counter the threat that has been posed to their vote bank in Sindh by PML-N. With many noticeable identities joining PML-N in Sindh, things will only get worse for the currently in-power PPP. MQM’s hold in Karachi (by whatever means) can’t be overlooked.
Within Karachi, they are a force to reckon with. They also have a fan-following in interior Sindh. PTI has also started its campaign in Sindh. Though IK is trying hard to claw votes in Sindh but the preponderance of PPP and MQM will not make it a doddle for PTI. A place where votes are being casted, not for probity and vision, but caste and creed, PML-N and PTI will have to do a lot of homework in order to harness PPP.
KPK and Gilgit-Baltistan: PTI is way ahead of other parties. If PTI joins hands with JI then it will strengthen it even further. PML-N performance in KPK has been extremely poor. The toughest rival for PTI in KPK can be ANP, but any chances of ANP pulling out a triumph are grim.
Balochistan: It’s hard to predict anything about Balochistan, because Balochistan has always experienced a coalition. Balochis fancy their regional parties more than any other party. At present, after IK dared to hold a procession in Quetta, things might change in the days to come. A wave of change was seen during the congregation. So, all in all, IK does seem to have an upper hand in Balochistan.
On the whole it’s really hard to predict the winner because the nature of Pakistani politics is very fickle. Alliances are made and broken at the eleventh hour. Also votes are being purchased and elections are being manipulated.
Let’s just hope that whosoever comes; works for the betterment of the people of Pakistan. He doesn’t pander to the wishes of someone else. He doesn’t merely expatiate on the miseries of common people instead of doing something in reality. People have affiliated great hopes this time around, and let’s see what turns out to be the decree of fate for them.